NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2022-2023 (2022)

Here are the latest trends in the NYC real estate market as well as the statewide market. A prolonged scarcity of properties on the market across the Empire State, along with high prices and growing mortgage rates, continues to impede the New York housing market in 2022. In June 2022, the number of available homes in New York plummeted by 14.3 percent, from 45,441 in 2021 to just 38,966 last month.

The month's supply of inventories decreased by 6.1 percent, from 3.3 months to 3.1 months, according to the New York State Association of REALTORS®. A six- to six-and-a-half-month supply is considered a balanced market. Closed sales decreased 8.6 percent, from 13,693 in June 2021 to 12,520. In June 2022, there were 14,326 pending home sales, down from 15,326 in June 2021. This is a 6.5 percent decrease. New listings also decreased to 20,138 houses, marking a 6.4% down from June 2021's total of 21,516 listings.

In June, the median sales price in New York increased to $428,825. This is a 13.1% increase over the June 2021 price of $379,000. In year-over-year comparisons, the median sales price has climbed for the past 26 months in a row. The housing affordability index decreased by 31.5% to 87 as compared to June of last year when it was 127. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2022-2023 (1)

NYC Real Estate Market: Are Home Prices Dropping?

The New York resale housing market (statewide data) slowed down in the second quarter of 2022 as increasing inflation, soaring sales prices, and soaring mortgage interest rates finally caught up with market players. Many buyers looking to purchase a home have lost eligibility for a mortgage or are unable to purchase a home in the present economic situation, resulting in a precipitous decline in buyer interest. The Housing Affordability Index in New York dropped by 31.3% to 90. A higher number means greater affordability.

  • Pending Sales in New York State were down 5.8 percent to 41,217.
  • They are considered a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings
  • Closed Sales decreased 7.1 percent to 33,209.
  • Inventory shrunk 14.3 percent to 38,965 units.
  • Prices gazed upward as the Median Sales Price was up 13.5 percent to $415,000.
  • The average sales price was up 15.1 percent to $554,413.
  • Sellers received, on average, 102.9% percent of their original list price at sale, a year-over-year improvement of 2.1 percent.
  • Days on Market decreased 14.5 percent to 53 days.
  • Months Supply of Inventory was down 6.1 percent to 3.1 months.

New York has also been one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the highest job losses among the country's major metropolitan areas. It has been recovering from the economic effects of the pandemic. Inventory shortages and strong buyer demand continued to drive up home prices, with multiple offers on a limited number of homes being a common occurrence in the majority of market segments.

The current market dynamics point to a competitive advantage for New York City sellers right now. The housing market may be making a turn toward normalcy across the country as a result of rising interest rates and an increase in the number of sellers who are listing their homes for sale. However, New York City is extremely unique in that rising rates do not necessarily slow down the demand for housing there.

There is still a significant amount of activity in the market from purchasers who are willing to pay cash or have enormous budgets and pay little to no attention to rising interest rates. Because of this, we can observe a split in the housing market in which demand for homes in higher price brackets continues to be robust while demand for homes in lower price brackets begins to weaken.

The rent prices are still climbing. In May, the citywide median asking rent hit a record high of $3,349, a 34% increase from the near record lows seen last year during the height of the pandemic. So while supply is increasing, it has not increased fast enough to meet demand, and prices have continued to rise. Citywide, there were 28,325 rentals listed on StreetEasy in May. That’s the highest it’s been since October 2021 when there were 30,977 rentals available, according to data by StreetEasy.

NYC Real Estate Market Trends in August 2022

Let us now look at the most recent trends in the New York City real estate market. The pandemic has hit New York City hard. As a result of the pandemic's aftermath, people have moved to the suburbs, driving up home prices in those areas. Those who stay in the city, on the other hand, are often able to find a better home for less.

The NYC real estate market is currently a buyer's market which means there are roughly more active homes for sale than there are buyers. The supply for housing is outpacing the demand favoring home buyers who are managing to hold good leverage in price negotiations.

Realtor.com's latest data also shows that NYC is a buyer's real estate market as it has a total sales to total listings ratio below 0.12 which tends to favor buyers. In other words, the supply of homes is greater than the demand for homes.

  • In July 2022, the median list price of homes in New York, NY was $895K, trending up 1.7% year-over-year.
  • The median listing price per square foot was $915.
  • The median sale price was $830,000.
  • The sale-to-List Price Ratio was 100% — homes sold for approximately the asking price on average.
  • A buyer would prefer a sale to list price ratio closer to 90%, whereas a seller would always prefer scenarios that yield a ratio of 100% or higher.
  • The median days on market (126 days) in New York City have decreased somewhat over the past month and decreased slightly over the last year.
  • Tribeca is the most expensive neighborhood, with a median listing price of $3.6M.
  • Riverdale has a median listing price of $360,000, making it the least expensive neighborhood in New York.

Data by Redfin shows that the median sales price of homes (all types) in New York was $817,000 last month, up 0.8% since last year.

  • On average, homes in New York City sell after 49 days on the market compared to 80 days last year.
  • There were 4,136 homes sold in June this year, up from 4,107 last year.
  • The median days on the market are 49, down by 31 days from last year.
  • The average sale price of a home in New York was $825K last month, up 1.2% since last year.
  • The average sale price per square foot in New York is $645, down 7.1% since last year.
  • The median sales price of homes in Manhattan was $1,300,000 last month, up 2.2% since last year.
  • The median sales price of homes in Queens was $710,000 last month, up 4.4% since last year.

NYC Real Estate Market Forecast 2022 and 2023

Among metropolitan areas, the New York City metro remains the country’s largest real estate market by value, but by a narrowing margin. The NYC-area housing market is valued at $3.51 trillion, with the Los Angeles metro right behind at $3.27 trillion, according to a report published by Zillow.

(Video) Housing Outlook 2023: Is the U.S. sliding into a ‘house recession’?

Many industry experts have been predicting a strong property appreciation in New York in 2022. It is going to be a great one for property owners as the state still faces a long recovery ahead. With the relaxation of COVID-19 policies, different economic sectors have opened up in different ways and at varying paces. According to existing trends, the New York housing market will be extremely active throughout the peak home-buying season.

What are the New York City real estate market predictions for 2022 & 2023? New York City has a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U.S. The New York real estate market has been booming year over year. NYC home prices nearly doubled over the last decade. With supply and demand continuing to favor sellers, prices continue to rise year over year.

According to NeighborhoodScout's data, the cumulative appreciation rate over the ten years has been 73.92%, which ranks in the top 40% nationwide. This equates to an annual average real estate appreciation rate of 5.69%. Despite the pandemic drastically affecting the New York real estate market, during the latest twelve months, New York's appreciation rate has been 12.33%. In the latest quarter, NeighborhoodScout's data show that house appreciation rates in New York were at 2.15%, which equates to an annual appreciation rate of 8.86%.

Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Since the last decade (August 2012), the NYC home values have appreciated by nearly66% — Zillow Home Value Index. ZHVI is not the median price of homes that aresoldin a month within a geographic region.

It is calculated by taking all estimated home values for a given region and month (Also called Zestimates), taking a median of those values, and applying some adjustments to account for seasonality or errors in individual home estimates. It, therefore, represents the whole housing stock and not just the homes that list or sell in a given month.

By this calculation, the current typical home value of homes in NYC is $772,277. It indicates that 50 percent of all housing stock in the area is worth more than $772,277 and 50 percent is worth less (adjusting for seasonal fluctuations and only includes the middle price tier of homes). In June 2021, the typical value of homes in NYC was around $712,000. NYC home values have gone up 8.3% since last June.

Here's Zillow’s housing market forecast for New York, NYC, and New York-Newark-Jersey City Metro. According to their forecast, the supply and demand dynamics will likely push prices north again over the next 12 months.

  • New York-Newark-Jersey City Metro home values have risen by 12.6% to $614,826.
  • The New York Metro housing market forecast ending with June 2033 is positive.
  • Zillow predicts that New York Metrohome values may grow by 4.8% by June 2023.
  • If this forecast is correct, New York Metro home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2023 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2022.
  • Home values in New York (statewide) have risen by 13.9 percent to $405,105 and will continue to rise over the next twelve months.

The chart below, created by Zillow, shows the growth of typical home values since 2012 (ZHVI).

NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2022-2023 (2)

Impact of COVID-19 on The NYC Real Estate Market (New York City)

Migration Trends: People are leaving big, densely populated areas like New York City and spreading out to suburbs or smaller communities with lower infection rates and/or to save money. Over the past several months, there's been an influx of renters in the Hamptons coming from New York City. Hampton is roughly 100 miles from New York City and Brooklyn — the top two cities that experienced the highest amount of net losses.

New York City experienced the highest losses — more than 110,000 residents left the city from February to July of last year. That’s 487% growth (or nearly five times) when compared with the number of outgoing movers that left Manhattan in 2019. Brooklyn ranked sixth last year, but numbers quadrupled in 2020, pushing it to second place. What could be causing the large migrations during the key months of the pandemic? Let's discuss some more interesting trends.

The StreetEasy Market Reports are a monthly overview of the Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens sales and rental markets. It’s been two years of unpredictability in the New York City market, but their latest data shows that the seasonality of the NYC home sales market is back. Homes are being sold from the market twenty days faster than the same time last year.

As the peak shopping season approaches, buyers will likely observe that homes are selling just as quickly, if not more quickly. The spring housing market will be competitive, but the increase in new inventory is encouraging. The recent increase in home prices should encourage even more sellers to place their properties on the market, making it easier and more likely for buyers to find their ideal home.

According to StreetEasy Market's April 2022 report, in April 2022, the average New York City house was on the market for 46 days. That's 20 days faster than April 2021, and the quickest period since April 2016, when the median New York City property sold in 44 days. Homes sell the fastest during the spring home buying season, and April's six-year low points to 2022 being one of the most competitive markets in years.

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In April, there was a significant buyer demand. The median asking price in New York City hit $995K, the most since June 2019 and a 4.7 percent rise over last year. The number of properties under contract remained near the record highs recorded since the market's comeback last spring. Apart from the previous year, 1,525 properties were put under contract in Manhattan in April, the most since May 2013.

The Inventory Is Growing

For the last three months, the number of properties on the market has climbed month after month. On StreetEasy in April, there were 19,000 properties for sale. That's close to the pre-pandemic peak of 20,735 available houses in the spring of 2019 when the market was moving considerably more slowly than it is now. This is a positive indicator for buyers this spring and summer, as many sellers are attempting to capitalize on current market dynamics by listing while the market is hot.

The Prices Are Growing

In April, the median asking price in Manhattan increased 7.4% annually to $1.45M. This was the most substantial yearly growth among all evaluated boroughs. Still, the median asking price is 9 percent lower than it was in April 2019, the city's final full spring home-buying season before the pandemic of 2020.

The median asking price in Brooklyn increased by 6.6% year-over-year to $975K, the highest level since May 2019. In May of 2018, the median asking price in Brooklyn reached a record high of $990K. Even though the median asking price for Queens properties increased for three consecutive months, prices were down 2.5 percent year-over-year to $599,450. Compared to April 2019, prices in Queens are 13.1% lower.

The number of homes offering price reductions is a good indicator of buyer demand. In April, 11.6% had a price cut. That is the highest share of price cuts seen so far this year, and slightly higher than April of last year when 10.9% of listings had a price cut. In Brooklyn, 8.8% had a price cut, unchanged from March and the highest share thus far in 2022. The share of price cuts in Queens reached its highest level this year at 10.1%. This was down slightly from last April when 10.9% of homes on the market had a price cut.

NYC Quarterly Home Sales Market Trends

  • Manhattan asking prices rose 7.7% to $1,395,000 during the first quarter.
  • Inventory fell 10.1% year-over-year with 12,057 homes available on the market but rose by 4% since Q4 2021.
  • This is the first time in three quarters that there has been a quarterly increase in Manhattan sales inventory.
  • Brooklyn asking prices rose 6.1% to $955,250 during the first quarter.
  • Inventory fell 8.7% year over year with 6,668 homes for sale.
  • Sales inventory remained relatively the same between Q4 2021 and the first quarter of this year, with 22 fewer homes available.
  • Queens was the only borough analyzed to see a drop in prices and an uptick in inventory.
  • Queens asking prices fell 3.2% to $599,000 during the first quarter, while inventory rose 2.8% year over year with 4,466 homes for sale.

New York's Recovery From The Pandemic

The full recovery of the NYC real estate market and the economy as a whole depends on the potential future shutdowns in NYC, as well as the speed and efficiency of vaccine distribution which can help the businesses to reopen with full capacity with no restrictions at all. According to preliminary figures released on July 21, 2022, by the New York State Department of Labor, New York State’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held constant at 4.4% in June 2022, following five consecutive months of decline. From June 2021 to June 2022, the unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) fell from 7.5% to 4.4%.

The number of private sector jobs in New York State increased over the month by 19,700, or 0.2%, to 7,982,700 in June 2022. The number of private sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 0.3% in June 2022. New York State's private sector jobs (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 433,600, or 5.7%, over the year in June 2022, which exceeded the 4.8% increase in the number of private sector jobs in the U.S.

On a net basis, the total number of nonfarm jobs in the state increased by 26,100 over the month, while private sector jobs rose by 19,700, in June 2022. At the same time, the total number of nonfarm jobs in the nation increased by 372,000, while private sector jobs increased by 381,000.

  • New York City’s unemployment rate increased over the month from 6.1% to 6.2%.
  • Outside of New York City, the unemployment rate remained at 3.1%
  • The number of unemployed New Yorkers increased over the month by 5,800, from 414,400 in May to 420,200 in June 2022.
NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2022-2023 (3)

New York Rental Market Report

The Zumper New York City Metro Area Report analyzed active listings across 15 metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The New York one-bedroom median rent was $2,114 last month. New York City was the most expensive market with one-bedrooms priced at $3,420 whereas Newark was the most affordable city with rent at $1,350.

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Here are the places where it makes sense to invest in rental properties in the New York City Metro Area. These are the places where the demand for rentals is growing strong in 2022.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in New York City Metro Area (Y/Y%)

  • New York City had the fastest growing rent, up 37.9% since this time last year.
  • Poughkeepsie saw rent climb 37.7%, making it rank second.
  • Hoboken was third with rent jumping 37%.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in New York City Metro Area (M/M%)

  • East Orange had the largest monthly rental growth rate, up 5.3%.
  • Stamford rent grew 5.2% last month, making it the second fastest growing.
  • Hackensack & West New York were tied for third with rents both climbing 5.1%.
NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2022-2023 (4)

Where to Buy a House in NYC 2022?

New York is dominated by renter-occupied one or two-bedroom apartments. 76.75% of New York's dwellings are rentals. As per Neigborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, one and two-bedroom large apartment complexes are the most common housing units in NYC. Other housing types prevalent in NYC include single-family detached homes, duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments.

The New York housing market has affordable townhomes. New York's single-family homes account for just 1.15% of the city’s housing units. During the latest twelve months, the New York real estate did cool off. However, the cumulative appreciation rate over the ten years has been 38.81%, which ranks in the top 30% nationwide. Evaluate the specifics of the NYC housing market at the time you intend to purchase. Hiring a local property management company can help in finding tenants for your investment property in NYC.

New York City's housing market is one of the most costly and competitive in the country. There are 237 neighborhoods in New York (as per Realtor.com). Tribeca has a median listing price of $3.6M, making it the most expensive neighborhood. Riverdale is the most affordable neighborhood, with a median listing price of $360K. Here are some of New York's most popular neighborhoods, along with their median listing prices, as reported by Realtor.com as of April 2022.

NYC Neighborhoods

Median Listing Price

$/SqFt

Upper East Side

$1.5M

$1.4K

Upper West Side

$1.5M

$1.6K

Riverdale

$355K

$357

Midtown East

$1.1M

$1.3K

Chelsea

$2M

$1.9K

Great Kills

$649K

$428

Harlem

$875K

$1K

Sheepshead Bay

$460K

$452

Flushing

$638.8K

$646

Tribeca

$3.7M

$2K

Park Slope

$1.6M

$1.3K

Eltingville

$625K

$392

West Village

$1.5M

$2.3K

New Springville

$498.9K

$394

Flatbush

$680K

$785

Bedford-Stuyvesant

$899K

$887

Bayside

$749K

$607

Bay Ridge

$535K

$564

Williamsburg

$1.4M

$1.4K

Westerleigh

$650K$426

There are some buyer-friendly neighborhoods in New York City where buyers have a bit more negotiating power in neighborhoods as compared to sellers. Jackson Heights is one of New York City’s most buyer-friendly neighborhoods at the moment with home prices under $700,000. Other buyer-friendly markets with a median sales price below $700,000 include Rego Park, where the median sales price in Oct 2021 was $389K, trending down -by 8.9% year-over-year. The sale-to-list price ratio was 100 percent.

The median list price of homes in Sheepshead Bay was $499K in Oct 2021, trending down -by 5% year-over-year. The sale-to-list price ratio was 97.72 percent. The median list price of homes in East Flatbush was $650K, trending up 8.9% year-over-year. The sale-to-list price ratio was 100 percent. The median list price of homes in Brighton Beach was $569K, trending up 16.4% year-over-year. The sale-to-list price ratio was 97.03 percent.

Buyers have a bit more negotiating power in neighborhoods where the median home price falls between $700,000 and $1 million. In areas like Midtown East, where the median sales price is $872,500. Homes in Midtown East sold for approximately the asking price on average in Oct 2021. The other neighborhoods best for buyers looking to spend between $700,000 and $1 million are Bayside, where the median sales price in Oct 2021 was $720,000 and the sale-to-list price ratio was 99.37 percent; Gravesend ($684,500, 96.98 percent); Flushing ($838,000, 96.38 percent); and Bay Ridge ($499,000, 98.14 percent).

All of this could vary from time to time and can be checked on Realtor.com. Check out some of the best neighborhoods for investing in New York for the long term→ These neighborhoods have been selected from all the five boroughs.

If you think of investing in NYC, you have decided on a long-term investment property. Here are the ten neighborhoods in NYC having the highest real estate appreciation rates since 2000—List byNeigborhoodscout.com.

  1. Inwood North
  2. Marble Hill
  3. Washington Heights Southeast
  4. Roosevelt Island
  5. W 115th St / Amsterdam Ave
  6. E 57th St / Madison Ave
  7. Madison Ave / E 52nd St
  8. W 58th St / Grand Army Plz
  9. Tribeca South
  10. W 70th St / Amsterdam Ave

Top Real Estate Estate Markets in New York

Buffalo real estate market

The Buffalo real estate investment offers a surprisingly good deal with low prices and relatively high rental rates. The Buffalo real estate market is dominated by older homes. A majority of homes in the Buffalo housing market were built before World War 2. Interestingly, this also means that many small apartment buildings are designed to serve a population that rented small units close to their jobs.

(Video) The Real Estate Market Crash Late 2022 - Early 2023

For example, roughly a third of homes are single-family detached homes, while almost half take the form of small apartment buildings. This creates an excellent opportunity for those in the market for Buffalo rental properties. You could buy a small apartment building with multiple tenants for the cost of a single rental property in a more expensive New York real estate market.

Syracuse real estate market

Syracuse's real estate market offers cheaper property with a higher return on investment and a less hostile legal climate. It is one of the better choices if you want to invest in New York state. Another issue that factors into the equation is the job market. Lots of cities have a great quality of life but almost no one can afford to live there.

The Syracuse housing market ranked 6.3 out of 10 for its job market. That’s better than rural and much of upstate New York. And it is why there is a slow trickle of people moving in to replace those who leave. That’s why the Syracuse real estate market has a net migration of 5 or a stable population. This is in sharp contrast to the depopulation seen in most Rust Belt cities. It also means Syracuse's real estate investment properties will hold their value for the foreseeable future if they don’t appreciate it.

Albany real estate market

Albany is a steadily appreciating real estate market. While it isn’t as famous or hot as NYC, it offers an affordable entry point and a massive pool of perpetual renters. Though it may not be somewhere you want to live, many locals are choosing to stay and make their homes here. And that will continue to drive demand for Albany real estate investment properties as long as they are priced right.

Rochester real estate market

You can also consider Rochester. The Rochester real estate market is stable, offering slow appreciation, affordable properties to outsiders, and good returns. It has strong, long-term potential that is only buoyed if NYC collapses. And this is one of the reasons why being everything the Big Apple isn’t is in your favor.

The Rochester real estate market enjoys a healthy population profile. Roughly a quarter of the population consists of children, and many are likely to remain due to the healthy job market. It also means that the Rochester housing market won’t crash if the job market weakens the way San Francisco collapses whenever the tech bubble bursts. Others choose to remain here because of the low cost of living.

Some of this article's information came from referenced websites. Norada Real Estate Investments provides no explicit or implied claims, warranties, or guarantees that the material is accurate, trustworthy, or current. All information should be validated using the below references. Norada Real Estate Investments does not predict the future US housing market. Buying a rental property needs research, planning, and budgeting. Not all investments are good. Always do research and consult a real estate investment consultant.

References

  • https://www.nysar.com/news/market-data/reports
  • https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center
  • https://www.zillow.com/new-york-ny/home-values
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/New-York_NY/overview
  • https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-housing-market-data/
  • https://www.redfin.com/city/30749/NY/New-York/housing-market
  • https://www.elliman.com/corporate-resources/market-reports

FAQs

Will house prices go down in 2022 NY? ›

Economists at Fannie Mae expect prices to be, on average, 16% higher in the coming quarter than they were a year ago. MBA economists also expect home price gains for the foreseeable future. They forecast a 9.8% yearly increase for prices in 2022 compared to 2021 and a 2.8% gain in 2023.

Will house prices go down in 2023 USA? ›

The California median home price is forecast to drop 8.8% to $758,600 in 2023, following a projected 5.7% increase to $831,460 in 2022 from $786,700 last year.

Will 2023 be a good year to buy a house? ›

Now, as demand slows, an economist says US home prices could fall as much as 20% in 2023. In addition, a slowing economy overall could bring 30-year mortgage rates back down.

Will house prices continue to rise in 2022? ›

UK house prices are set to rise by five per cent year on year in the last quarter of 2022, with London underperforming against the rest of the country for the seventh consecutive year, at three per cent.

Should I wait until 2024 to buy a house? ›

In that regard, the future may be bright for would-be homebuyers. According to Zillow Research, the supply of homes may not catch up to historical levels until around 2024. In a survey of housing experts, the majority believe home inventories will reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

Will property prices fall in 2024? ›

New housing demand will pick up in the next 18 to 24 months as rising wages and falling prices combine to improve the affordability problem keeping buyers out of the market, says Stockland chief executive Tarun Gupta.

Videos

1. Housing Outlook 2023: A look at rent prices, mortgages and interest rates
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3. Real estate expert projects housing market is about to crash
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4. Buy A Home Now Or Wait For 2023? | Are Home Prices Dropping?
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